How Trump’s Energy and Manufacturing Policies Could Impact the Housing Market
Like or hate the man knowing how the Trump Administration policies will create winners and loosers in Real Estate is our advantage to staying ahead of the market and economic trends.
Real estate is closely tied to economic shifts, and policy changes in energy, steel, and manufacturing could send ripples through the housing market. With Donald Trump emphasizing domestic production in these sectors, residential buyers and sellers may wonder:
- Will home prices drop if material costs decrease?
- Could energy policies affect affordability and utility costs?
- Will mortgage rates be impacted by inflation and economic growth?
Here’s how Trump’s economic priorities might shape the real estate landscape in the coming years.
1. Lower Construction Costs? Not So Fast
One of the biggest expenses in real estate is the cost of building new homes. If steel, lumber, and other materials become more affordable due to increased domestic production, we could see:
✅ Lower construction costs
✅ More housing developments
✅ Potentially slower home price growth
However, this isn’t guaranteed. If tariffs remain on imported goods or if domestic supply fails to meet demand, costs could stay high, limiting the impact on housing affordability.
Who Benefits?
- Buyers looking for new homes in growing markets with available land
- Builders who can lower their costs and pass savings onto buyers
Who Could Lose?
- Sellers who might see slower appreciation in home values
- Markets with strict zoning laws that still limit development
2. Energy Policy: Lower Utility Costs & Regional Booms
Trump’s focus on oil, gas, and coal production could lower energy prices, reducing home heating, cooling, and utility costs.
For homeowners, lower energy costs could make homeownership more affordable, especially in regions with high electricity rates.
Additionally, states rich in energy resources (like Texas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico) could experience:
- Increased job growth from expanded energy production
- Higher demand for housing near oil and gas hubs
- Land value appreciation in resource-heavy areas
Who Benefits?
- Homeowners in high-energy-cost states (California, New York) if prices drop
- Investors and homebuyers in energy-heavy states where job markets strengthen
Who Could Lose?
- Buyers in areas dependent on renewables if incentives shift toward fossil fuels
- Homeowners near new energy infrastructure facing environmental or zoning concerns
3. Job Growth & Housing Demand
Expanding manufacturing, steel, and energy production could create jobs, boosting wages and homebuying power.
Key Housing Impacts:
✅ More demand for housing in industrial and energy-rich areas
✅ Rising home values in working-class and suburban markets
✅ Potential rental market growth if temporary labor forces increase
However, the benefits won’t be evenly distributed. Metro areas driven by tech, finance, and services may not see the same housing growth, creating regional disparities.
Who Benefits?
- Industrial and manufacturing hubs that gain jobs
- Suburban and rural housing markets with new employment opportunities
Who Could Lose?
- Expensive coastal metros where manufacturing jobs are less relevant
- Luxury home markets if wage growth focuses on middle-class jobs
4. Inflation & Mortgage Rates
If resource production stabilizes supply chains and lowers inflation, mortgage rates could come down. This would be a win for buyers.
However, if government spending and economic expansion fuel inflation, the Fed may keep rates high, making affordability an issue.
Who Benefits?
- Buyers if inflation slows and mortgage rates drop
- Sellers if demand remains strong in a stable economy
Who Could Lose?
- Buyers if inflation remains high and keeps mortgage rates elevated
- High-priced housing markets where affordability concerns limit demand
5. Policy Risks & Market Volatility
While Trump’s policies aim to boost domestic production, they also come with uncertainty:
- Will trade wars or tariffs keep material costs high?
- Could energy booms turn into busts, leading to market instability?
- Will environmental regulations impact zoning and new developments?
Buyers and sellers should watch how these policies unfold and how local markets react.
Who Benefits?
- Investors who buy in the right locations before job booms
- Buyers in stable, supply-driven markets
Who Could Lose?
- Sellers in volatile or high-risk markets
- Buyers in areas affected by regulatory shifts
What This Means for You
Trump’s energy and manufacturing policies could bring opportunities and risks to the real estate market.
✔️ If material costs drop, home prices could stabilize.
✔️ If energy prices fall, homeownership could become more affordable.
✔️ If jobs grow in certain industries, housing demand will follow.
But keep in mind: Market forces, interest rates, and local policies still play a huge role in whether these benefits actually reach buyers and sellers.